Brexit - Change & Opportunity

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Brexit – Change & Opportunity

The UK formally invoked Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union at 13.30 CET on Wednesday March 29, 2017, signaling its intent to withdraw from the EU. At that moment, negotiations between the UK and EU began, fundamentally redefining the political and economic relations between the two in the future. Britain should, according to the conditions of the Treaty, leave the EU by April 2019 at the latest – possible extensions to the deadline notwithstanding. From that moment on, all EU treaties will cease to apply to the UK and the UK’s access to the EU could change profoundly.

Critical changes could include:

  • The complete or partial loss of free trade access to a ‘home market’ of over 500 million consumers within the EU countries.
  • The complete or partial loss of access to a vast array of suppliers and consumers.
  • The complete or partial loss of ability to freely sell goods and services within the EU without customs or non-tariff barriers.

Companies whose business models are reliant upon these aspects will face a difficult decision where to further conduct some or all of their business.

This Brexit special section of our website will provide an overview of the ongoing negotiations and their ramifications, as well as providing a perspective on how the foreign investment landscape could be affected.

Latest News

September 13, 2017 | The head of Germany's Automotive Association says a cliff-edge Brexit will "change everything" but the UK will pay a higher price. Sky News, September 13.
Full story here

September 6, 2017 | The Federation of German Industries has set up a task force, including some significant global companies, to assess the level and response to disruption caused by a hard Brexit. Investing.com, September 6.
Full story here

August 11, 2017 | Morgan Stanley sees the pound falling to a parity level with the Euro during 2018. Financial Times, August 11.
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August 3, 2017 | It’s not only banks which are ramping up their efforts in contingency planning as the threat of a hard Brexit looms ever larger. Economist, August 3.
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July 21, 2017 | Jim Cowles, Citigroup’s Europe, Middle East and Africa chief, has told his staff the bank has decided to base its EU broker dealer — its main trading operation — in Frankfurt, while Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan says that his bank will begin to book the “vast majority” of the assets in its UK global markets business to Frankfurt. Both are said to be “assuming a reasonable worst outcome” from the Brexit talks. The Financial Times, July 21.
Full story here

July 3, 2017 | Japanese Bank Sumitomo Mitsui becomes the third Japanese financial institution, after Nomura and to head for Frankfurt as a consequence of Brexit. PA/Reuters, July 3.
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July 4, 2017 | The UK financial services industry is still leading the way in terms of attractiveness for international investment, but as Brexit concerns take hold, the gap to the rest of the field is narrowing. Independent, June 29.
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July 14, 2017 | Samsung Next Europe, a technology firm, has decided to set up its European Headquarters in Berlin rather than London, citing London as unaffordable, hard to do business in, and no fun. Independent, July 12
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Studies / Surveys / Data / Stats

September 11, 2017 | German bank KfW has forecast an economic crisis for the UK as a consequence of Brexit. KfW study, September 11 (in German).

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July 7, 2017 | The German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has set up an information portal for financial firms looking to move to Germany in the wake of a spike in demand. BaFin, July 7
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June 13, 2017 | A study by Germany’s Ministry for Economics and Energy has shown that the UK’s GDP could fall by as much as 1.7% following Brexit, while the EU’s would only fall by 0.3%

Full story here

June 13, 2017 | A study by Harvard’s Kennedy School has shown that an overwhelming majority of British businesses would prefer to remain in the EU, or at least avoid a hard Brexit, as they fear it may damage investment and trade opportunities.

Full study here


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