Consulting, Risikomodellierung und -analyse

• Land Indonesien
• Abgabetermin 10.08.2026
• Finanzierung Weltbankgruppe (IBRD)
• Referenznummer 0002023021
• Betreff Enhancing Disaster Risk Modeling and Financial Risk Analytics for Indonesia

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SELECTION OF CONSULTING FIRMS BY THE WORLD BANK GROUP REQUEST FOR EXPRESSION OF INTEREST (EOI) Electronic Submissions through WBGeProcure RFx Now ASSIGNMENT OVERVIEW Assignment Title: Enhancing Disaster Risk Modeling and Financial Risk Analytics for Indonesia Assignment Countries: Indonesia ASSIGNMENT DESCRIPTION The World Bank seeks a qualified consulting firm to support the World Bank and Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, in enhancing disaster risk modeling and financial risk analytics for disaster risk financing policy formulation. The assignment aims to strengthen Indonesia's disaster risk assessment framework modeling by updating selected hazard models—focused on earthquake, floods, and drought—and improving exposure, asset value, and vulnerability datasets to produce more robust estimates of government contingent liabilities and disaster-related fiscal risks. The firm will also strengthen financial risk analytics, including contingent liabilities and insurance analysis, to support the formulation of a comprehensive disaster risk layering framework and disaster risk financing strategy. The assignment will also support strengthening the existing disaster risk dashboard for decision-making and disaster risk financing policy formulation. The consulting firm will undertake a comprehensive review of existing disaster risk management and disaster risk financing studies, models, policies, and datasets. Based on this assessment, the firm will enhance probabilistic hazard models for earthquakes, floods, and droughts, including integration of climate change considerations where relevant. The firm will update and validate exposure databases covering state-owned assets, regional government assets, households, agricultural assets, and selected national bridge infrastructure, while strengthening vulnerability functions and damage modeling methodologies. Building on the enhanced hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components, the firm will conduct catastrophe risk and financial analysis, including estimation of Average Annual Loss (AAL), Probable Maximum Loss (PML), Event Loss Tables (ELT), Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), and Occurrence Exceedance Probability (OEP). The firm will assess government contingent liabilities, quantify insurance coverage and residual risk, evaluate financing gaps, and analyze disaster risk financing solutions such as indemnity and parametric insurance, catastrophe bonds, and other public financing mechanisms. The assignment will further support the development of recommendations on optimal risk retention and risk layering approaches to strengthen Indonesia's fiscal resilience against natural disasters. The assignment is expected to be implemented over a period of twelve months and will require a multidisciplinary team with expertise in disaster risk modeling, geospatial analysis, engineering, actuarial science, insurance, economics, information systems, and disaster risk financing. Deliverables will be produced in both Bahasa Indonesia and English.   ELIGIBILITY 1.      Experience in catastrophe risk model development for state financial risk management. 2.      Access to relevant state asset exposure databases that have already been validated and verified. The database will be a comprehensive inventory of infrastructure assets, including their type, location, physical condition, asset value, and usage level, compiled to identify critical infrastructure in disaster-prone areas 3.      Experience in geospatial data for assessing disaster risk reduction (DRR), disaster risk management (DRM), and disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI).  4.      Multidisciplinary expertise combining earth sciences, actuarial science, engineering, economics, information systems and science in the field of disaster risks. 5.      Strong understanding of Indonesia's disaster risk management, state asset management, and disaster risk financing policy environment.   SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS The World Bank Group invites eligible firms to indicate their interest in providing the services. Interested firms must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services (brochures, description of similar assignments, experience in similar conditions, availability of appropriate skills among staff, etc. for firms; CV and cover letter for individuals). Please note that the total size of all attachments should be less than 5MB. Firms may associate to enhance their qualifications unless otherwise stated in the solicitation documents. Where a group of firms associate to submit an EOI, they must indicate which is the lead firm. If shortlisted, the firm identified in the EOI as the lead firm will be invited to the request for proposal (RFP) phase. Expressions of Interest should be submitted, in English, electronically through WBGeProcure RFx Now NOTES Following this invitation for EOI, a shortlist of qualified firms will be formally invited to submit proposals. Shortlisting and selection will be subject to the availability of funding. Only those firms which have been shortlisted will be invited to participate in the RFP phase. No notification or debrief will be provided to firms which have not been shortlisted. If you encounter technical difficulties while uploading documents, please send an e-mail to the Help Desk at corporateprocurement@worldbank.org prior to the submission deadline.  

Contact Information: Indonesia Quelle:

https://wbgeprocure-rfxnow.worldbank.org/rfxnow/public/advertisement/7168/view.html

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